Fall Hiring Trends 2025: Which Industries Are Still Adding Jobs?
Can you believe it’s already the fourth quarter, and wow, what a year of ups and downs it has been so far. I’d love to write my typical fall hiring trends, but there’s so much going on beyond the usual pre-holiday season hiring cycle. Much of it you’re probably already aware of, but I want to put it into the context of the hiring market and how it will impact trends this year.
Interest rates are still high, inflation is still on the rise, tariffs are causing bubbles in many industries, and corporate spending seems to be cautious. In addition, we’ve been in a technological revolution with the release of AI for about 2 years now. And lastly, since the business world realized that a lot of work can be done remotely, we’ve seen a big shift in outsourcing overseas for roles that used to be here in the US. This is all impacting what I expect to see shake out in the last few months of this year.
So here’s what the data says, combined with what C-Suite leaders are telling me to expect this fall.
What the Data Says
I’m all for staying optimistic, but I’m also for being real about what we’re all seeing. You can’t plan based on optimism alone. So let’s be real for a moment.
The overall job market has been slowing since March of this year. That’s no secret, and there haven’t been a lot of jobs to replace the ones we’ve lost. June was the first month we lost more jobs than we gained. July and August posted slight job growth, but then in September, we lost 32,000 jobs with nearly every sector posting job losses except education and healthcare.
In fact, when you take a closer look, education and healthcare gained 33,000 jobs. That means we lost 32,000 jobs in manufacturing, distribution, construction, transportation, finance, professional services, hospitality, and others. (ADP September Employment Report) The Midwest was hit especially hard.
But it isn’t all doom and gloom if you’re looking for a job right now. There are a few industries that show some promise.
Which Industries Are Still Hiring in Fall 2025
The two biggest winners I see this fall are healthcare and retail.
Healthcare
Healthcare continues to see strong growth, and I expect this to continue this fall. We still have an aging population, and this industry appears to be less vulnerable to automation and outsourcing. Furthermore, the Covid-era regulations and new technology have expanded healthcare jobs into the realm of tele-health, which also needs to staff doctors, physician assistants, and nurses, as well as support staff.
Retail
Retail usually peaks this time of year, and I don’t mean just the in-store cashier type of jobs. I expect there to also be corporate retail jobs and supply chain jobs in this industry available this fall. I expect retail to still be a good choice for jobs this fall.
Technology
While some technology companies are seeing flat and declining job growth, niches in AI and cybersecurity are seeing some growth. Targeting these niches within this sector could be a good idea this fall.
Industries Under Pressure
Industries Flatlining
Professional Services
This sector was hit hard with job losses in September, and I don’t see it rebounding this fall. We usually see a peak in hiring for this sector during this time of year, but that hasn’t been the case yet and while some are optimistic that it will rebound, I don’t see that happening anytime soon based on the conversations I’m having with executives.
At best, I expect this sector to stay fairly flat in terms of hiring.
Hospitality
Hospitality also historically has seen a hiring surge in November each year, but this sector, too, is losing steam. With top earners fueling most of the spending, and lower and middle-income households cutting back (Washington Post), I expect hospitality to stay flat this year in hiring.
We saw job losses in September, and I expect hiring to flatten at best.
Government
Government is another sector that traditionally has seen a spike in hiring during the fall months, but not this year. As I write this, the government has shut down and has terminated more federal employees. Many estimates are now showing that nearly 300,000 federal employees have lost their jobs (New York Times).
I expect what government jobs remain will have a lot of competition, and this sector will remain flat on hiring, if not continue to decline this fall.
Industries Declining
Manufacturing and Construction
I expect manufacturing and construction to decline in job opportunities this fall. Some of this is seasonal. Historically, construction jobs have always slowed down this time of year. But we’re also seeing cost pressure put on these industries with economic policy and rising costs in general. I’ve spoken with several CFO’s in these industries and they’ve all forecasted downward trends for Q4.
We’re also seeing a decline in exports. One manufacturer who makes mirrors for the commercial sector stated that they saw a boom in Q2 as everyone was trying to get ahead of tariffs, but then in Q3, they slowed greatly.
There’s a lot of uncertainty in these industries right now, and I don’t see them as a hot job choice this fall.
Education
I don’t do a lot of recruiting in education, but I do speak to a handful of individuals who work in this sector. What I’m hearing is that due to budget constraints, some of which are due to federal funding cuts, this sector is pausing hiring and trying to save money wherever they can.
I expect jobs in education to significantly decline this fall.
Financial Services
Typically, there is an increase in these jobs at the end of the year, but this year I expect a decline. Automation and outsourcing are hitting accounting, finance, and financial services harder than many other industries.
Hopefully, this sector will pick up some steam come January, but big firms like Deloitte are already predicting sluggish job growth through the end of Q1 next year. This is an industry that I expect to see jobs continue to decline in the fall.
Implications for Job Seekers
Be Industry Flexible
Targeting your skills to resilient industries can help you shorten your time to find a job. Think about industries your past companies have sold into or bought from, and where you may have exposure even if you haven’t worked in that specific industry before.
Emphasize Cross-Industry Skills
Translating your resume is going to be key. If you’ve been in the same industry doing the same job for your entire career, your old resume probably isn’t going to work as well in this job market.
Working with a resume writer like Stage 2 Resumes or using a program like Huntr can help you with this.
Network in Growing Industries
Networking response rate usually slows down this time of year, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good time to reconnect with people you’ve already connected with and find new contacts in resilient industries.
While a great resume is going to be important if you’re changing industries, networking is going to be a big difference-maker in your ability to make this change.
Faster Hiring
Industries that are hiring right now tend to have faster hiring decisions - like 20-30% faster on average by my count. Even in industries that aren’t hot right now, they will have job openings for critical roles to fill. Jump on these because they tend to move quickly.
What Job Levels Are In Demand This Fall
Mid-Career
Looking through my notes over the years, I find that mid-career professionals tend to fare better in the fall as there is less competition from new graduates for roles that can overlap. In addition, companies that are hiring for specialized roles tend to want to hire people with more experience this time of year.
Executives
Executives also tend to do well with job searching this time of year. The average executive search can take many months. That means companies may start the process at the end of the year in anticipation of next year’s budget. This can work to your advantage.
Who Doesn’t Do Well This Time of Year
This isn’t usually the best time for career changers to find work. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t job hunt, but just know, you might have some additional headwinds.
One HR executive told me that they are more willing to take chances on career changers after the new year, when budgets allow for more resources and training, vs. the end of the year, when budgets tend to be depleted.
While there tend to be fewer candidates active and applying for jobs this time of year, there are still a lot of people looking for jobs. This year, I predict there will be more job seekers than jobs. Hiring managers know this, and they know they can find people with industry and skill matches, so it’s hard for them to consider career changers right now.
Looking Forward
Of course, all of this is just prediction based on real conversations with hiring teams and data provided to the public. As we all know, things could shift at any moment. I would keep an eye on inflation, interest rates, consumer spending, and tariff policy.
I expect we’ll also see a shift to new in-demand skills revolving around AI and automation. Government spending and regulation can also play a part in the job market.
And I didn’t even discuss regional differences. Some regions of the country are faring better than others. While the Midwest got pummeled with job losses last month, the Northeast and the West Coast saw gains in jobs. There are many nuances that can impact your specific situation.
With that being said, control what you can control and let the rest go. Use the data we have to make strategic decisions about your career, when to pivot, and what new skills to develop.
Other Articles In This Edition
Inside the Recruiter’s Inbox: What Happens After You Apply?
How to Be Thankful at Work (Even If You’re Ready to Quit)
What Recruiters Are Looking for Right Now (Before Year-End)
How Recruiters Find You On LinkedIn (And How to Show Up More Often)
Cole Sperry has been a recruiter and resume writer since 2015, working with tens of thousands of job seekers, and hundreds of employers. Today Cole runs a boutique advisory firm consulting with dozens of recruiting firms and is the Managing Editor at OptimCareers.com.
